Day 109 – All change (again)

Another address from the President at short notice yesterday evening and it’s all change again for the rules and regulations of Level 3 Lockdown. Or Level 3 Enhanced or Advanced or Plus or Plus Plus (which makes everything better). I’m a bit lost as to exactly where we are now.

I think we’re all a bit lost as to exactly where we are now.

What changed last night, then?

Masks became mandatory in public places. There are now a lot more rules and detail about that, replacing the previous:

A person must when in a public place, wear a cloth face mask or a homemade item that covers the nose and mouth, or another appropriate item to cover the nose and mouth.

Which did kind of suggest that masks were mandatory when in public places.
Good. There’s plenty of evidence that this will slow the spread of the virus – especially in indoor space (which aren’t good places to be anyway right now, remember?)

The sale of alcohol got banned again. Annoying, disruptive, damaging to the local economy, but sadly understandable, given the current pressure on our healthcare systems. And yes, it does feel like the whole class is being punished because a couple of kids wouldn’t stop talking, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. Trying to put those two children on the naughty step has not worked, so we all have to suffer. Once again, the black market will open up, shebeens won’t be adequately policed and the law will instead choose to crack down on someone with a six-pack of Savannah in his car boot. It’s all part of the dysfunctional society in which we live.

A new curfew 2100-0400. It seems like that those two kids who ignored the teacher and kept chatting also do it mainly at night. Alcohol and late nights are apparently the thing and time that there is most pressure on hospitals – at least from a unnecessary admissions point of view. So – no more booze and no more late nights. Not that the rest of the class were out and about much anyway.

Taxis can now have 100% occupancy for short distance trips. As long as their passengers wear masks (as above) and as long as the taxis have their windows open.

Eish… Taxis… taxis… taxis… The transport lifeline of low income South Africans.
The bane of every other road users’ life.
Let me take you through the folly of these regulations in no particular order.

100% occupancy. This in the same week that it was revealed that having middle seats empty on planes halved the risk of catching coronavirus. 100% occupancy in taxis will only increase the chance of passengers catching Covid-19 on their taxi journey. However: honestly, given the infamous disregard for the law amongst SA taxi drivers, it’s unlikely that they were sticking to the previous 70% rule anyway.
Opening windows. I can be pretty sure that the windows on taxis will not be opened during journeys in winter. It’s either freezing cold, soaking wet or (and yes, actually at the moment) both. Opening the windows may seem like a silly thing, but ventilation is key in preventing the spread of respiratory illness. It’s one simple way of reducing the spread of TB. However: honestly, given the lack of anyone opening taxi windows to “Stop TB” and yes, given the infamous disregard for the law amongst SA taxi drivers, it’s unlikely that any windows will be opened.
Wearing masks. This one is down to the passengers, because they sit behind the driver and once they are on board, s/he can’t see them. Given the adherence to the mask rules so far, and adding that there is no apparent punishment for the passenger – only for the driver, I can’t see this one working out either.

So, while fully understanding the importance of the minibus taxi industry for many South Africans, taxi use will merely lead to more infections and provide an excellent vector for the virus to spread further, both due to the very nature of the rules, and the fact that any mitigating regulations are likely to be ignored.

We can still go to church, to cinemas and the theatre, but only if there are fewer than 50 of us there. We can pop in to the casino or restaurant, as long as they make sure it’s not more than 50% full. But we can’t go and see our families in their homes. I don’t agree with half of this. Probably not the half you think though.
Let me explain it from a couple of places.

I have mentioned before that just because something is permitted, it doesn’t mean that it’s a good idea. And being inside with other people is not a good idea at the moment.

It’s almost as if that first line of the lockdown regulations:

You must remain at home at all times…

was put there for a good reason.

I would strongly advise against going to cinemas, theatres, casinos and restaurants right now. But at least if you do (and assuming that they are following regulations, which many/most seem to be), you will be screened on entry and have your details recorded, so 1. things are controlled and infection risk is reduced, and 2. if there is a problem, they can get back in touch with you and tell you that you may have been exposed.
I wouldn’t be visiting family and friends (especially older family and friends) even if it were allowed right now. Really, infecting relatives because the little asymptomatic transmission fairy was hitching a ride on your shoulder is not a good look.
Let’s be honest, many people have been going round to see their families and visit friends, been meeting in groups to exercise, and generally ignoring regulations since lockdown began. And who of them is going to then obey the rules about not going out if you are feeling under the weather?
And there are no screening precautions in place at Ouma and Oupa’s place.

There are far too many stories about people getting sick because they have done silly things.

So don’t go out if you can possibly avoid it: and you really can avoid cinemas, theatres, casinos, restaurants and Aunt Mary’s. You can.

So in conclusion, once again, if you take a step back and look through neutral-coloured spectacles, the government is trying to balance the dangers of the virus and the dangers of a collapsing economy. And they are trying to follow best practice as far as limiting potential exposure and protecting people – in words at least.
Are they doing it very well? Not really.

They’re in a no win situation. And they’re not winning.

Will people continue to break the rules as and when they see fit? Damn straight.
Will any of this be adequately, fairly and correctly policed? Nope.
Will we see the black market rise again for booze and continue for cigarettes? Of course.

This is not a pretty picture. But then global pandemics rarely seem to paint those.

 

Day 92 – Some good advice and some nice visuals

Two things to share with you today: one is some good advice and the other is some nice visuals.
You’d probably guessed that from the title of the post though.

First up, a nice, practical piece from the Daily Maverick, written in language we can all understand.

We cannot be saved by government policy alone – the things we can all do are what will save South African lives. And those things are pretty simple.

Our Summary:

Do everything possible outdoors;
Open windows;
Wear masks;
Keep at least one metre distance (two metres is better) from people
Avoid crowded spaces
Be quick

It’s good stuff, it’s easy to read, and each point is backed up by (layman’s) scientific reasoning.

My one gripe is the little contradiction that creeps in under the “No Shaming” heading:

There is no need to shout at people exercising outdoors without a mask but at a distance, or in the park with their family; they are not going to infect you.

Sure, I wasn’t going to shout at them. But wearing a mask outdoors costs no time, money or effort and reduces the risk of transmitting the virus from “low” to effectively “nil”. So why make any exception at all: why not just wear the damn mask like the law and any decent sense of morality says you should?

It’s not hard.

And then these visuals of “How the Virus Won” from the NY Times. (This link spotted first via @JacquesR, and then in about four other places I frequent very shortly afterwards.) Yes, you need to register (free), but it’s very interesting and probably worth it.

Some basic graphics, some good data – again explained in layman’s terms, the odd political quote (only the ones where the politicians in question got it horribly wrong – hindsight is 2020 – but why on earth would you want to go there ever again?).

It regularly looks horribly like one of the 1960s graphics you get where some killer plague spreads across the world.

Strange that.

 

Those are your interesting links for Friday. Have a nice day.
Wear a mask. Don’t be in America.

Day 56 – Superspreading

Not much here today, but I did enjoy the back-to-basics lessons available in this Sciencemag article.

It’s all about how certain individuals and certain situations are more likely to spread the virus than others. And while we’re not 100% sure of the reason for some people spread more virus than others:

Some people shed far more virus, and for a longer period of time, than others, perhaps because of differences in their immune system or the distribution of virus receptors in their body. A 2019 study of healthy people showed some breathe out many more particles than others when they talk… People’s behaviour also plays a role. Having many social contacts or not washing your hands makes you more likely to pass on the virus.

…it’s very much a reason that the virus gets passed on more quickly in some situations. These people don’t know they’re doing it and they don’t have a big red flashing light above their heads, but with quotes like:

“Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread”

…if you’re not wearing a mask while you’re out and about, you’re very much part of the problem.

Especially if you are exercising. Surprise, surprise, the more energetic your breathing, the more virus you expel. So runners are the ones who are more likely to be spewing clouds of virus out. So those runners who are “unable” to cover their faces while they run because “it’s not very comfy” are potentially putting a lot of other people at risk.

Nice. Thanks, you precious, selfish twats.

As I shared just yesterday, the Washington Post described three superspreading events as being one reason why Cape Town has so many cases of Covid-19 at the moment. So there’s so much local relevance here.

But perhaps my favourite “OMG, that’s so obvious” moment was the meat-packing plant connection. Meat-packing plants are the perfect place for respiratory viruses for two reasons:
Firstly, they are cool (temperature-wise, rather than in trendiness), meaning that virus particles remain intact – and infectious – for longer, and
Secondly, because the machinery in the plants is loud and so workers have to talk more loudly to be heard. Louder voice (shouting, singing, deep breathing, panting) means you’re more likely to expel virus.

Amazingly simple. Amazingly obvious.
I love that someone actually had the sense to take it back that far.

Anyway, like I said: good article.
Wear a mask. Be lekker.

Vincent > Bill

Spotted on social media ad nauseum, lots of stuff like this:

So what?

Vincent CC Cheng et al. not only told us about “the Corona virus” [sic] back in 2007:

(that was ahead even of the MERS outbreak of 2012), they even told us exactly why this 2019/20 pandemic was going to happen:

It’s an informative and enlightening read, if you have the time.

The fact is that despite his standing, his fame and his amazing charity work, it seems that no-one batted an earlobe at Bill. And so why on earth would anyone have been bothered with what Vincent had to say?

We’re hearing so much about the changes in attitude that this pandemic is having and going to have in the future, but no-one listened to the experts back in 2007 – it’s only now that their (actually fairly obvious, when you read the evidence) predictions have come to pass that we’re giving them the time of day.

And even then, in this case, it seems like it’s only me that’s doing it.

Shouting about Bill will do no good now. No-one cared what he was saying back in 2015, false hero-worship of a false idol just because someone dug out an aging Ted talk and popped it on your Facebook isn’t going to stop any pandemic. Bill didn’t know about Coronaviruses; Bill was relaying the experts views to the general public.

The public chose not to listen.

Over in the UK, laboratory scientists and healthcare workers are being offered free coffees, cheaper food, special opening hours at supermarkets and numerous other benefits in the UK right now. And I think that’s great. They’re at the sharp end when it comes to this sort of thing. But then, they’ve always been at the sharp end. Underappreciated by a succession of governments – of every colour – and the general public for years and years, they’re suddenly the heroes of the hour. Sure: this is a biggie. And yet they’ve been putting their lives on the line in the face of some properly horrible diseases (CJD, Ebola, Anthrax, TB) for decades. So thanks for noticing now, but maybe have a sit down and a quick review of your previous thoughts and feelings on the people working in the healthcare sector when there was no global pandemic as well.

Once all this is over (the outbreak, that is); once we have the vaccine and some degree of herd immunity; once we’re returning to something like normal life, will you listen the next time Vincent or Bill has something to say?

I’m guessing not.

Precautions

Yeah. It’s another post about you-know-what. The Lord Voldemort of infectious diseases. Sorry. But then, when we get through all of this, it’ll be good to look back at the good and the bad of how we tried to deal with it, and that will surely stand us all in good stead for the next global pandemic.

South Africa is taking precautions. Today is the last day of school in SA for (at least) the next 2½ weeks. Dodgeball is cancelled. Music lessons have stopped. Scouts has been stopped. The play we were due to go and see on Saturday is off.

And my inbox is full of local companies telling me how they are adapting to the crisis. Let’s have a look at what they’re doing.

YES! WE ARE OPEN! say Getwine:

At the moment, GETWINE’s e-commerce together with our three “walk-in” outlets will remain open for business but we are continuously monitoring the situation.
Online shopping remains the safest way to get your wine. Customers can be assured that we have taken all possible steps to ensure that you have a safe and enjoyable online or shopfront experience.

Mildly concerning that they’ve taken “all possible steps”, but still admit that online shopping is safer. But they’re probably right and the alternative is there if you want/don’t want to take risks.

Oishi Sushi are:

closely monitoring local and international guidelines with regards to Coronavirus (COVID-19)

and:

are taking increased precautions by reinforcing the following health and hygiene protocols within all of our delivery kitchens:
  • Increasing the frequency of hand-washing and hand-sanitization
  • Replacing our existing hand sanitizer dispensers with touch-free dispensers
  • Increasing the frequency of cleaning all kitchen surfaces
  • Increasing the frequency of food safety audits
On the delivery side of things, we will be introducing the option of a no-contact drop-off service that allows customers to prepay via SnapScan or Zapper, and to add drop-off instructions in the comments section on the checkout page (e.g. leave outside door).

And even my firewood and braaiwood supplier sent details of what they’re doing:

Wow. And this for wood which I am literally going to burn? (Burning renders the virus inactive, by the way.)

Wine, food and wood and the three secondary basic human needs after wi-fi, Castle Milk Stout and toilet roll, and I’m hopeful that with the primary three already in place Chez 6000… and the secondary three safely available to us, we’ll be able to get through the difficult times ahead.

Now wash your hands.

 

UPDATE: Also in touch today…
My gym: “the government suggests that we should close, but we’re not going to (yet).”
My local hiking/camping/outdoor pursuits store: “go outside, enjoy the time with your family, buy our stuff online.”
My bank: “we’re being really careful – fewer meetings. Also be really careful.”
My local supermarket: “we’re wrapping things properly in our bakery section. There’s hand sanitiser everywhere (except on the shelves).”
My favoured e-hailing service: “we’re consulting with an epidemiologist to make sure our efforts as a company are grounded in medical advice.” [Woah!]