How to Bet on Newly Promoted Teams

How betting on newly promoted teams works, and all you need to know to improve your chances of winning when you place bets on underdogs.

Betting on Promoted Teams: All You Need to Know

As a team gains promotion to the top division in a league, facing elite teams is an exciting prospect for both players and fans. Newly promoted teams, however, sometimes find it hard to gain points against these elite teams. Each season, new teams are included into leagues, by relegation or promotion and a lot of bookmakers often support them in several markets.

For the recently relegated, the chances are often better for them while the newly promoted are faced with a difficult struggle to stay in the limelight. Betting on promoted teams is never easy. However, it could be challenging, but also very lucrative, with so many factors and situations surrounding newly promoted teams. You can find some good betting tips in our article.

upsure.co.za

It is evident that soccer teams struggle to thrive after promotion. However, it could be beneficial for bettors to be able to quantify the struggles of these newly promoted teams. Carefully analysing and predicting the performance of newly promoted teams against elite teams in a higher division can reveal inaccurate odds and unveil value bets. Below is our ultimate guide for wagering newly promoted teams…

Betting on Promoted Teams: What Betting Markets are Available

When betting on promoted teams, many markets are available to bet on. Most online bookmakers offer a range of market positions from promotional to outright relegation contenders. Some of the common markets available are:

  • Relegation
  • Finish Bottom
  • To Avoid Relegation
  • Outright Winner
  • Promotion
  • Top Half Finish
  • Bottom Half Finish

Essentially, you can back a newly promoted team in any market where you can support an elite team.

Things to Consider When Betting on a Newly Promoted Team

When you want to place your wager on newly promoted teams, there are several things to consider. Many factors contribute to the extent to which a team will be successful in a new league. Some of the questions you should ask before betting in favour of new teams include:

How can the Struggles of a Newly Promoted Team Benefit Bettors?

Bookies frequently underestimate the newly promoted teams and their chances of winning a game and tend to offer elite teams higher odds. This allows bettors to use these miscalculations to their advantage. This is simply done by comparing a newly promoted team’s implied probability that it will be able to beat the team on the top six the previous year with the actual odds that it offers and bet on the implied value.

Off the Field Activities

Events off the field can determine how a team performs and can be seriously damaging if the unrest occurs mid-season. Similarly, if a club has seen significant investments from sponsors in recent seasons, it may be expected to use its financial influence to encourage subsequent promotions.

Player/Managerial Changes

Following a successful season, newly promoted teams are often targeted by elite teams. The star players or managers of these new teams are poached by bigger teams. The team could turn out entirely different without them, especially if the team is reliant on such a player or manager. This could nudge the team into relegation and that’s where you should be looking at.

With the knowledge of how things work for newly promoted teams and how they struggle in numbers, you can get the edge on a bookie when trying to bet on the new teams.

Bet that’s irritating

Yes, it is.

I don’t know a lot about rugby (see yesterday’s post), and it seems that I don’t know a lot about betting on rugby either.

Earlier in the week, in an effort to learn more about rugby, I have a look at what the bookies thought might happen in the RWC quarter finals. The bookies are nearly always right in these matters, and that’s why they are still all in business. I popped a 4-way accumulator on the four matches (which I won, but not much) and then I looked at the SA v Japan fixture. I felt that this one was going to be close. SA underperform fairly regularly at RWC tournaments (often due to the ref – and I checked that there was going to be a ref in this match), and Japan have been the surprise package of the World Cup so far. I was therefore amazed to see that I could get ridiculous odds for the points difference being 0-27. Fourteen to one. Fourteen!

“I’m having some of that,” I thought, as I had some of that.

It was only later in the week that I finally understood what I had actually bet on. Not the points difference between the teams (i.e. the winning margin), but the total number of points scored in the match.

Oops.

“Never mind, can’t do much about it now,” I thought, neither minding nor doing anything about it now.

It’s not like you can change your mind on these things (well, you can, but you don’t get your money back). I considered it a sign and tried to forget about it. Until, that is, that I wandered in from the garden at half time today and noted that the score was only 5-3.

Sadly, Japan capitulated a little in the second half, and it seems that my bet went out of the window with about 10 minutes to go.

The final score was 26-3, meaning that I lost my bet (and an awful lot of winnings) by just 2 points. Injurious, sure.
However, insult was very much added to that injury when I realised that my initial prediction  (that the points margin would be less than 27) proved to have absolutely correct and also absolutely without value, since I hadn’t actually placed a bet on that happening any more. I’d placed the bet on something that didn’t happen instead.

I think I’ll stick to football in future. Already, I have decided that both the winning margin and the total number of goals in today’s ManU v Liverpool game will be less than 27.

Safety first.