Here we go again

Gorgeous pre-frontal skies in Cape Town this morning can only mean one thing: a front is coming.

The hint is in the name, see?

And yes, it does look like tomorrow’s weather is going to be pretty ropey, then we’re in for a couple of very chilly days before Sunday, when… well… it’s looking positively biblical.

The weather apps agree on the timing, but are all at odds over the actual amount of rainfall. We’re looking at anything from 10-20mm tomorrow and anything from 22-50mm on Sunday. It’ll be cold and windy as well, just to add injury to injury.
Don’t expect daily highs of anything more than 15°C*.
Do expect winds gusting to 85+kph.

All of this will put additional strain on the electricity supply, which doesn’t even do well when everything is peachy, so it’s full-on recipe for disaster stuff. Ugh.

Thus, it would seem likely that tomorrow will be our first fire of the season. For the record, our first fire of last winter was 25th April. This is probably the most predictable weather-related thing that’s ever occurred in Cape Town.

* we’ve been down “15 isn’t cold road” many times before. don’t force me to make you to turn right onto “well 30 isn’t hot avenue”.

The weather: lots going on

I mentioned that there were some rather awful conditions on the higher inland part of my journey on Friday. And then how Saturday was an absolute peach of a day. Today is also stunning: light breeze, near cloudless skies, 26oC. But tomorrow… tomorrow looks like fun. Here’s a weather IR view of the country and surrounds taken about an hour ago:

Top right (purple, round) is Tropical Cyclone Freddy. It’s heading towards Madagascar and has sustained wind speeds of 250kph within. That’s the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane. Landfall is not going to be pretty.

Then there’s an arc of thunderstorms (orange and red blotches) across the North East of SA. They’re curling down across Botswana and Namibia and might even get down as far as the Western Cape. But they’re likely to be pushed back by that huge cold front (multicoloured swoosh) in the bottom left.
That’s going to hit Cape Town tomorrow and promises to bring “high intensity” rain and strong winds to the Western Cape.

It’s not like we don’t need the rain. We just don’t need it all in one go.

My apps are suggesting the wind turning to the NW late this evening and then increasing in strength throughout the morning. The rain seems to arrive just before dawn, with the heaviest stuff mid to late morning, correlating with the wind which could gust to 92kph.

According to sources, it “demands absolute attention”, so while it’s not a Freddy in any way, shape or form, it’s still probably best not to underestimate it.

Stay safe.

Next cold front coming

More “Damaging winds” and “Disruptive rain” are expect today and this evening. The wind is already here, and while it hasn’t done any damage yet (that I know about, at least), you can see how it might, because it is quite strong and gusty. And those are two of the main attributes of wind that can cause damage. On the plus side, we did get a beautiful pre-frontal sunrise this morning, which my phone did its best to capture:

But didn’t really do it justice.

This cold front is not going to be as big as the last one, which – for the record – deposited a total of 154mm of rain into our back garden. That’s a lot, given that our annual rainfall here is 1150mm.
It also raised the Cape Town dam levels by a very welcome 5%. I’ve been doing some rudimentary calculations and that means that over the past few days, the net inflow into the dams comes in at 44,911,050,000 litres or 45 billion litres, give or take.

Your occasional reminder that a small percentage of a very big number is still a very big number.

According to my best sources, the rain will begin at about 8pm, peak around dawn tomorrow (poor Dawn), and continue on and off for most of Saturday, ruining any local rugby matches that you couldn’t buy tickets for anyway. Sunday, on the other hand, looks like it will be full of equal amounts of sunshine and freezing temperatures.

Have a lovely weekend.

Day 517 – Something to look forward to

Deliciously sunny day today. If you’re wondering how my recovery is going – using the internationally recognised Duvet Cover Hanging Scale – I hung a duvet cover on the washing line and then had to sit down for 10 minutes.
That’s only 5 minutes longer than my pre-Covid levels.

Things are clearly improving.

But you’d better get your washing done quick quick, because tomorrow, this:

Indeed. Winter is not quite over yet.

On the plus side, this will probably (definitely) be enough to top off our dams at 100% ahead of the drier weather which will definitely (probably) be on the way real soon now. We’re currently sitting at 98.8%, with just another 10,427,000,000 litres needed to break that all important 898,221,000,000 litre mark.

Easy.

Check your gutters and drains. Wrap up warmly. Stay safe.

Regional numbers for reporting emergencies in the Western Cape:

· City of Cape Town – 107 or 021 480 7700 and 080 911 4357

· Overberg – 028 425 1690

· West Coast – 022 433 8700

· Garden Route – 044 805 5071

· Central Karoo – 023 449 8000

· Cape Winelands – 021 886 9244 / 021 887 4446

Day 349 – Rain and a new editor

I’m trying to be positive about this house we’ve bought in this strange but beautiful little enclave of the Southern Suburbs (which really isn’t like Royston Vasey) (or at least that’s what I keep trying to convince myself).

One day, it will be a great home – and I know that it’s really early days – but the constant setbacks and extra invoices that they seem to unerringly generate, well, they’re getting me down a little.

Today was the first day of rain since we’ve moved here; the first day of real rain this year, I think (the first 69 days of this year seem to have whistled past without generating any significant meteorological memories). Its imminent arrival meant that the pool guys had to abandon their work early yesterday, and thus we’re left with a partially completed, partially filled pool at the moment. Hopefully things improve enough for them to be back tomorrow to finish the job.
That’s going to look really good.

I spent a lot of the morning finding leaking roofs and windows. Seven in total, and only two really bad ones, but that’s seven (and two) too many. Let’s be nice and not talk about the legalities of disclosure. On the positive side, I guess that this early, single cold front does give us the chance to try to attend to the issues before the proper onset of proper winter. I have a feeling that I’m going be up ladders for much of the remainder of the week. But things need to dry out before I can start chucking waterproofing chemicals around.

Lastly, away from all this house stuff, I’m finally giving WordPress’ Block Editor a go, dragging myself kicking and screaming into the 21st century. If you’re reading this and words in all order are, then it would seem that I have mastered it already. Intuitive UI FTW!