Your Wednesday Thursday storm briefing

(Following on from your Monday Thursday storm warning and your Tuesday Thursday storm update.)

Hello, Thursday Storm fans (I’m looking at you, UtianG).
Another day, another lot of isobars.

It’s still coming; it’s still fairly large: there’s been no further relief on the pressure side of things since yesterday’s post. It has been slightly delayed by the traffic from the stop/go system for the roadworks near Tristan da Cunha, and thus we should only expect the worst of the rain late morning tomorrow.

Looking out of my lab window at the cloudless , windless Cape skies this morning, it’s hard to believe that we’re all going to die horribly there’s a cold front just 24 hours away. It’s all so calm and peaceful. And dry.

Here’s the latest synoptic chart, and while we’re all looking at what’s approaching the Western Cape tomorrow, it would be foolish to ignore that second low pressure area behind it which is making its way eastwards across the South Atlantic. At the moment, it looks like that’s going to hit the Cape overnight on Sunday and into Monday, ruining what was already going to be a pretty crappy morning for us all anyway. It’s not going to be as big as tomorrow’s excitement, but it’s a long way off and it does have the potential to change track and give us a proper battering.

But let’s get through tomorrow first, with Windguru predicting almost 40mm of rain over 24 hours for the Mother City, followed by an entirely dark, damp and dreary Friday.

Stay safe, drink red wine, toast a beagle on your log fire and do a crossword. Look after those who don’t have your luxuries: you can donate a bed for 5 nights at The Haven Night Shelter for just R60 without even leaving your chair. Click here and do your bit. I have. Or use Snapscan:

And please share this post (use the buttons below) and get others to do their bit as well.

And then come back for tomorrow’s post entitled:

Damp Squib: What Was All The Fuss About?

or:

Sweet Baby Jesus. We Are Actually All Going To Die!

depending on the prevailing meteorological conditions.

Thursday storm update

Windguru is still shouting about TONNES of rain and 80kph gusts of northwesterly air in Cape Town on Thursday morning, but a quick look at the synoptic charts for the South Atlantic actually indicate that things have calmed down just a little out there [points westsouthwest].

Now, I’m not doubting Windguru. It is, after all, the self-proclaimed guru on these sort of things. But there’s no doubt that the centre of that low pressure area is more diffuse and not as deep as it was yesterday.

If I was a betting man (I’m not), I’d be wondering about whether (no pun intended) this one is not going to pass a little further south than the original forecasts originally forecasted. That would mean that we’d just catch the tail end of the cold front, and that it might not be quite as bad as we were expecting.

I am going to add a couple of provisos here though: firstly, I’m not a professional weather forecaster. Some would say I’m not professional at all, and there are times when I’d find it difficult to argue with them. Secondly, “not quite as bad as we were expecting” is relative, as we were actually expecting it to be really, really bad. So even if I’m right, it might still be really bad.

Of course, the closer the actual event, the more accurate the forecast can be. And that’s why we’ll be having another look at this tomorrow. Follow on Facebook here and don’t miss this (possibly) incisive commentary on the approach of (possibly) the biggest storm of the year.

Easter weekend photos

I promised. And once again, I appear to have delivered:

bigger, darker, better: here 

Photos from a superb, sunny, surprisingly stormy Easter weekend in Cape Agulhas are available in the appropriately-named Summer Moved On set on my Flickr.

Knock yourself – metaphorically – out.

Right to left

Safely down at the cottage, fire lit, coffee in hand, red wine just around the corner. We left a grey Cape Town behind and drove down through the Southern Cape countryside in beautiful sunshine, arriving just in time to see the incoming front at Agulhas:

image

There are no blue skies out there anymore. The storm force winds and horizontal rain have chased them away and are playing together outside.
But hey, never mind… I’ve just spotted the brandy bottle.

Later today

The thing with my Windguru app is that it vigorously scaremongers*. Look a week ahead, and sometimes you’d be forgiven for believing that the Apocalypse was on the way. But, as the final judgment approaches, the weather app tones down its forecast, and while the sun might not shine, tomorrow is still only a day away.

image

Not so with this one though, and although I do think we’ll still live to see another day, it does appear that things could get a little exciting later today. I love the way that you can see the North wind giving way between the 14h and 17th forecasts, and then the rain coming in as the centre of the deep Low passes and the frontal train hits.

Cape Town is bearing the brunt of this one. The rain is quite localised and further down the south coast looks damp and grey, but not Noah’s Ark territory. We’re going to take our chances down in Agulhas – hopefully getting there and getting the fire lit before the storm blows in there.

Stay safe and warm, local people.

* But for hour by hour forecasts from about 48 hours ahead, it’s terrifyingly accurate.

UPDATE: Meanwhile, in America