I saw this tweet this morning:
Southern Scotland is starting to look a little blue in our #GE2015 forecast: http://t.co/FbkC8IWXS0 pic.twitter.com/KhPvlxmltH
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) April 22, 2015
and I was intrigued, because Southern Scotland (much like the rest of Scotland) isn’t known for its support of the (blue) Conservative party.
I went to the (rather cool) website to have a closer look, and yes – it seems that in their latest polls, the Tories hold an ever so slender lead over Labour and the SNP in those three constituencies. I don’t actually come close to believing this, by the way. But supposing for a moment that I actually did, how cool are the numbers in Dumfries & Galloway?
That’s tight.
In fact, according to figures from the 2010 results, it would mean that those top three parties are separated by only 200 votes. It would also mean that the Conservative vote has remained completely unchanged while loads of Labour voters moved from Red Ed to Scary Nicola’s Party (SNP). OK, so that latter bit is more believable.
I have limited interest in the UK election, if I’m honest. I do enjoy the websites and the facts and the figures. But it’s all been a bit negative, confrontational and depressing. I’m not voting and unless something amazing happens, it’s probably going to end up in a horrible, horrible mess after the vote, no matter who doesn’t win.
Still, I’m going to have my beagle-eyes on D&G, and I’ll try to remember to update you on exactly how close it turned out to be after the big day.