Superbru’s Closeness Index Equation Is Copied From 1969 Apollo 11 Mission – But Might Just Work

According to recent stats that we just made up, everyone in South Africa plays Superbru, the free online sports prediction game. I’m a veteran, having played and won Superbru pools in football, cricket and rugby over the last 5 years, including a top 2% finish in last year’s Rugby World Cup with over 130,000 players, and I’m looking forward to their Premiership and Tri-Nations Rugby Championship games starting this weekend.

While in rugby, you’re asked to predict the winner of the game and the winning margin, in football, you are asked to predict the actual score. You get points for predicting which team wins and you also get points for “being close” to the actual score. But what defines “closeness” in predicting football scores?

Superbru have devised their own system, resulting in what they call the “Closeness Index”:

We believe two things determine how close your pick was to the actual score. Goal difference shows how close you thought the game would be. But, a goal difference of 1 applies equally to 1-0 and 5-4. If the real result was 2-1, then surely the 1-0 is a better pick than 5-4?

Total number of goals helps us refine this. In the example above, there were 3 goals (2-1). One pick said there would be 1 goal (1-0) and the other 9 goals (5-4). 1 goal is closer to 3 than 9.

We factor both goal difference and total number of goals into a formula called the Closeness Index (CI). The lower your CI, the closer you were to the actual score (0.00 is a perfect pick).

All of which sounds very nice, but how exactly do they “factor both goal difference and total number of goals”. Well, they tell us this too:

Closeness Index (CI) = (your goal diff – actual goal diff) + ((your tot. goals – actual tot. goals) / 2)

Example:
Actual score: 2 – 1
Your prediction: 1 – 0

Closeness Index (CI) = (1 – 1) + ((1 – 3) / 2 )
= (0) + (-2 / 2 )
= 0 + 1
= 1

Well done. Extra marks for showing your working there.

However, eagle eyed astronomers and physics graduate readers will recongise that equation:

C = (b – a) + ((x – 1y)/2)

as being the lynchpin of the calculation used to safely land the LM-5 Lunar Module on the surface of the moon in 1969 (the only difference being the lack of the 0.15 correction factor for the gravitational pull of the moon). Now, using this formula may seem to be an unnecessarily complex (one small) step by Superbru, but you have to applaud their efforts in attempting to quantify the unquantifiable in order to make their game fairer. In addition (no pun intended), you’d do well to remember that this equation was successful in getting Neil et al onto the moon, so by my extrapolation, it’ll probably work really well in this scenario as well.

Of course, there will be those who will claim that since the moon landings were faked then the Superbru Closeness Index is also fundamentally flawed. For this reason, I will be making all my Premiership picks from a makeshift film studio in a Hollywood basement.

Stoke City to beat Reading 2-1. Near the Sea of Tranquillity. Probably.

Bourbon Clear

We met, by chance, in the Spur at the Waterfront. Me and my kids, him and (some of) his. A brief conversation ensued; the usual pleasantries, some congratulations on the latest addition to his family just 8 weeks ago. And then he asked if we had been to see the Rainbow Warrior and were we aware that we could go on board? We hadn’t, and I wasn’t.
He and I agree on many things, but we fall on very different sides of the lentil curtain.

I was aware that she was in town, but Greenpeace really isn’t my scene. He understood, but remarked (sagely, I felt):

Try to ignore the lefty, liberal agenda and just see it as a ship.

Fair enough, we were running a little late already, but the kids love ships.

We left him to his (free range?) ribs and headed down towards the Table Bay Hotel where the Rainbow Warrior is docked.

That’s when we saw it: the Bourbon Clear. (We also saw the Rainbow Warrior, but the queue for indoctrination looked a little long and I thought I might get sent for re-education if I accidentally let slip my views on whaling) (or fracking) (or nuclear power) (or hippies).

But anyway, the Bourbon Clear – what a ship! Norwegian registered and helpfully described as an “Multi-Purpose Offshore Vessel”, it has a long, low, flat stern with a MASSIVE bulbous bow section, a good five or six storeys above the water line. Weird, but ever so cool.

Once home, I popped onto marinetraffic.com (we’ve talked about them before here), and got all the facts and figures. And then I saw this photo:

When it said “Multi-Purpose”, I (foolishly) imagined it meant transport, towing, fire-fighting (those impressive water jets were evident) and the like. I never thought it meant sunbathing. But what a little (88m long) suntrap they’ve got going on there, hidden away from the rest of the world by those 6m high gunwales. And if the skipper says it’s ok, then why the hell not?

It wasn’t particularly sunny in Cape Town today, but from our position on the quayside, we couldn’t see into the back of the Bourbon Clear and I’m now left wondering what we missed behind the walls of green metal. A football match? A crazy golf course? A field full of wild horses? A clown convention?

I’d like to imagine that anything can happen on-board the Bourbon Clear.

Drama

It’s been a wild day down in Cape Town. Torrential downpours, hail and thunder, interspersed with brief spells of glorious sunshine. It made for a good day to get out and see the huge swells generated by the storm front that made landfall yesterday evening.

Because of last night’s rain, Chapman’s Peak Drive was closed, so it was impossible to do both town and the deep south, thus I chose to drive the kids down around the peninsular, taking in the baboons in Kommetjie, the waves at Slangkop and Misty Cliffs, the “fresh breeze” at Scarborough and the bonking ostriches near Cape Point.

Looks, the waves were great, the scenery fantastic, but I could have done without the ostrich display, if I’m honest.

The photos of the afternoon are here. And yes, some hot ornithological action is included, purely for educational purposes.

Today &Tomorrow

It’s been a funny day. Due to my hard work on the public holiday yesterday, I found myself with a rare day off with a wife and some childcare.
We made the most of it, out for breakfast and shopping for a new car. I don’t want a new car particularly, but I do need a new car.

The current 6000mobile is getting on a bit and it’s starting to get to that point where it’s becoming false economy to keep it running. Additionally, it was bought in a previous era: living in the City Bowl and before the arrival of our kids. Things have changed and it’s suddenly small and impractical.
This car shoping is not something I enjoy either. It’s a lot of money and it’s being given to a salesman. I’ve spoken to a lot of them today and I’m frankly amazed at how many of them have first-hand knowledge of working for the company whose vehicle I am considering. What are the chances?
I’m not sure whether I should be impressed with their intimate knowledge or concerned about the evidently huge turnover of staff in the motor retail industry.

Tomorow will be more fun. No salesmen – just a desire to go out and look at the effects of the storm which arrived in the Cape earlier this evening.

Expect photos. 

Runaways

Women’s Day here in SA today and thus a public holiday, but I find myself hard at work in the lab. TB shows no respect for human public holidays and insists on growing and requiring care and attention. The plan is to get through the tasks in hand and then join the rest of the family wherever they are for some fun in the sun, ahead of the epic storm forecast for the weekend.

Not to delay those precious dry family moments then, herewith the new one from the Killers. Another band that haven’t changed their style at all, which is great because it was just fine as it was. Runaways comes ahead of their new album next month and – hopefully – another tour including somewhere in SA with some parking.