Category: economic issues

Day 587 – No overall winner, many overall losers

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Elections aren’t actually a zero sum game. I mean, in numbers, they might appear so, but when translated into actual meaning, obviously things can change drastically. Because as soon as any one of those numbers dips below 50%, it’s game on for coalitions and kingmakers in these marriages of inconvenience. And that’s when things get stupidly complicated and fall apart in SA. And it’s always service delivery that suffers.

Now you might think that I’m being a bit pessimistic about how this is going to go – Danish Ambassador Tobias Elling Rehfeld certainly does:

But aside from finding that common platform of priorities – and sticking with it – there’s the big question of egos.
[TW: gross generalisations approaching] Here’s a hypothesis: in the Danish model, politicians get into politics to make a difference to the people of their ward and country. Sadly, around here, it’s more about self-enrichment, personal power and standing, and inflating one’s own ego. We’ve seen it time and time again: look at Malema wanting more than the ANC and then repeatedly flip-flopping on every issue whichever way makes him popular; look at de Lille flitting from one party to another, taking credit for the good bits, refusing the responsibility for the bad ones; look at the Mongameli Bobani and the NMB debacle; look at Tshwane a few years back. Disastrous.

Why wouldn’t it happen in these new-found situations as well? After all, as TER goes on to say:

But while that would certainly benefit the actual electorate, that’s not what the politicians in question want.
Quite the opposite.

Joburg is a particular mess. The last projected results I saw left even the most probable (or potentially stable) coalitions sitting on about 45% each. I’ll be delighted if I’m wrong, but I fear that it spells out 5 years of bickering, infighting and lack of service delivery for the city as one or other side tries to balance up 12 x 0.5%s to get over the line. Fugly.

Nationwide, the appalling turnout and the bitty results do show an overall dissatisfaction and disenchantment with the larger parties and the current system. But given that the three largest parties still look likely to get to somewhere around 80% overall, it’s unlikely that anyone is going to listen to that message. So it’s up to the smaller parties to tell us just how amazingly they’ve done, while not wielding any actual power, while the big dogs explain away their losses and disappointment with spin and smoke and mirrors.

Or just outright denial.

Lol.

Oh. And someone will blame white people. Somehow.

The only really good bit about yesterday was the utterly disastrous hilarious crash and burn of the Cape Party. Again. They were still belligerently chucking out hyperbole and mixed idioms yesterday during the voting:

For the record, there was no sleet or snow. A few heavy rain showers is all.
And surely the water surrounding the allegedly sinking ship (whatever that represents) might actually be a good place to be of the ship is actually going down and the rest of the world is ablaze. Take a lifebelt. And don’t pretend that you care about “the future of our children” when you go around supporting anti-vax protests.

Bunch of…

Whatever their plan was, it didn’t work. Who could have thought that appropriating and subtly altering the word “Brexit” with all its resounding economical successes and feelgood news stories into “Capexit” would have such a devastating effect upon their (minimal) potential election success?

So weird. So sad.

UPDATE:

Mess.

UPDATE 2:

Mess.

Day 516 – Damn you (all), Big Pharma!

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I have grown tired of being told to “follow the money” by the you-know-whos when it comes to “Big Pharma” and the Covid-19 vaccines. Sure, I accept that the system is far from perfect, and sure, Pfizer et al. have made a shedload of money from selling the vaccines, but then they have invested a shedload of money in research, development and production of the vaccines. Contrary to layperson belief, these products didn’t just appear overnight.

To the anti-vax crew, “Big Pharma” conveniently consists of the companies that are making Covid-19 vaccines: Pfizer, AstraZenica, Moderna etc. And yes, they are doing very nicely, thank you very much with market caps of $279.94B, $133.9B and $100B, respectively.

Clearly, Big Pharma = Big Money.

You could take the view then that “Big Pharma” is evil and merely all about the wonga – and the alt-right whatsapp groups have done just that – but then we mustn’t just consider these vaccine-producing companies as “Big Pharma”, we must surely look right across the market and well… “follow the money”.

Let’s take Merck. Merck employs 74,000 people, managed almost $50b in revenue last year and is apparently worth $194.64B

Note that Merck is much “Bigger Pharma” than AZ or Moderna. Clearly, they must also be just as evil or even eviller.

And look! Merck does have a foot in the Covid-19 door as well: they hold the licence to Stromencol – that’s their trade name for “miracle wonder drug” Ivermectin.

Just another arm of “Big Pharma” making money from a crisis. THEY’RE ALL THE SAME, GARY!

But Merck has also stated very clearly that Ivermectin doesn’t work against Covid-19 and is unsafe to use for that purpose:

But Merck are (as demonstrated above) very much “Big” and “Pharma”, so why are they not profiteering from people’s pandemic misery? Merck is like the Eskom of pharmaceutical companies: actively telling people not to use its product.
It’s an odd way to do business.

Presumably then, this is where the “this pandemic is just a money-making scam for Big Pharma” argument stops.
Or at least is conveniently overlooked. Cognitive bias at its finest.

Pfizer says that their vaccine works against Covid-19 and is safe, and the moonbat brigade refuse to listen to a word of it.
Merck says their Ivermectin doesn’t work against Covid-19 and isn’t safe, and the loons still run to swallow horse wormer in their thousands.

It’s almost as if Ivermectin doesn’t work against Covid-19 and isn’t safe. But then, I guess this is just a clever example of “Big Pharma” reverse psychology. Which the anti-vaxxers have seen right through. Well done, guys.

What a weird situation. But then, they are, aren’t they?

Day 473 – Misery everywhere

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There’s no good news today.

I’m not feeling great (no, not that).

Defeat for England (although), preceded by an unpleasant frontlash and followed by a (now sadly usual) disgusting backlash.

Rain, gales, floods and cold in Cape Town. More leaks in our house.

KZN and parts of Gauteng right on the brink of… something terrible.

Copious sexual intercourse won’t cure Covid-19.

More loadshedding on the way.

And this is just the stuff I feel I can share.

I have a lot of amazing memories from a few days away, and a lot of photos to process. But today doesn’t seem the right day to do anything except just hope that things get better.

Day 462 – Not a good idea

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I do recognise the need to stimulate the economy. I do see that we need money brought back into the country and businesses running again. I don’t miss the tourists, but I do know that we miss their cold, hard cash.

But surely this is not a good idea.

83 confirmed booking for cruise ships between October and the end of the year? Ah Jesus.

How’s the cruise industry looking at the moment? Awful.

That’s because cruise ships were one of the earliest vectors for Covid-19, and – despite their best efforts, things haven’t improved much. So alongside this sort of headline:

Are ones like this:

And this:

And once one or two passengers have got it, there will inevitably be a whole lot more to follow.
This isn’t rocket science. Stick several thousand people on top of each other for a few weeks and any illness is bound to spread. That’s why the government – very sensibly (gasp) – banned cruise ships from SA ports very early on in this whole ugly mess.

Before cruise liners, ships from foreign parts had a great history of bringing unwanted diseases to vulnerable populations:

Note: For “Black Death” read “Covid-19”; for “the Black Sea” read “Walvisbaai”; for “Messina” read “the V&A Waterfront; for “Sicilian authorities” read “Wesgro”, and for “covered in black boils that oozed blood and pus”… meh… maybe something about a fever, no sense of smell, and an inability to breathe. You get the idea.

And before Covid, cruise liners were food-poisoning hotspots, be it Norovirus, rotavirus, Salmonella or even unusual stuff like Staphylococcus. Thankfully, when that sort of thing is brought ashore, while it may not be very pleasant, it doesn’t close down entire cities and countries. If the statisticians and epidemiologists are right (and they’ve been pretty good so far) we will be a couple of months away from our fourth wave when the majority of these ships arrive. If they are bringing more Covid in with them, then we might see the whole of the summer washed out by more restrictions, and that would certainly be the death knell for any businesses who had somehow managed to survive that far.

Sure, cruise ships (especially 83 of them) are high reward customers for our local tourism industry. But equally, cruise ships (especially 83 of them) are also very high risk customers for all our local industries.

Much as they did with the proposed Horseshoe Bat Market in Woodstock back in March, someone surely has to stand up and just nip this one in the bud. For all our sakes.

Day 441, part 2 – Can’t watch

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News just in. The President is doing a thing at lunchtime:

Sadly, also happening at 12h00 – loadshedding:

Which will prevent me from watching, and which will also prevent any “swift and lasting economic recovery”.

Who’s going to tell him? (Both bits.)